In an interview with AMR Research, Carter Lusher / Dave Eckert make a surprising assertion:
“Only one analyst firm in the IT industry has a dedicated and systematic research approach on emerging technologies. However, that one firm is the 900 pound gorilla Gartner.”
That’s not the view from where I sit.
It’s rare that an emerging technology surfaces first in Gartner research. And, Gartner’s hype cycle and cool vendor reports are hardly the end all, be all of systematic industry research on bleeding edge tech.
Emerging technologies almost always come to light first at one of the dozens of smaller, agile analyst firms offering in-depth insight into specific markets. It’s easy to see why. These analysts tend to have deeper roots in early stage technologies and markets. They are easier to get to. They have robust networks among developers, investors, other opinion leaders, and early adopters. I see it time and again, from semiconductors to Wi-Fi to 3G to graphics to collaboration software to managed services.
Gartner does a good job of discussing technologies that are ready for early enterprise adopters. They also do a good job on emerging tech providers ready for IPO or acquisition. That doesn’t make Gartner the first — or the only — analyst outfit with a dedicated focus on emerging technologies.
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January 30th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Hi Barbara, Good post. A few points:
I said that “dedicated and systematic research approach on emerging technologies”. This should not be interpreted as saying that:
• Gartner is the only analyst firm on emerging tech
• Gartner has 100% coverage of all new technologies
• That Gartner is always the first to cover a new technology
• An endorsement of the quality of Gartner’s work
“It’s rare that an emerging technology surfaces first in Gartner research.” – So what? Does this mean only the firm who first reports on an emerging technology get credit for covering it? What about firms that are fast followers, whether Gartner or otherwise?
“And, Gartner’s … are hardly the end all, be all of systematic industry research…” Can you point me in the direction of other firms that do systematic research over time with recurring signature deliverables on a broad range – not a single or small related group – of emerging technologies?
“Emerging technologies almost always come to light first at one of the dozens of …” I don’t disagree and have written about how the plethora of specialized and small firms makes putting together an analyst list is such a difficult task for startups and intrapreneurs.
“That doesn’t make Gartner the first — or the only — analyst outfit with a dedicated focus on emerging technologies.” Don’t disagree on this either, except… Most other firms focus on a narrow band of emerging technologies.
Because HP Corporate AR supports HP Labs, I did a lot of work trying to find firms that systematically covered a broad swath of emerging technologies, including connecting the dots between clusters of new tech. Alas, I could not find any except the Gartnerians. I found lots of analysts working in silos or on one-off research projects. This group included small firms and large firms. I even talked to a lot of firms trying to cajole them into broadening their coverage to include big picture commentary on R&D and how various parts of emerging technologies connect. Alas, nobody was interested. That is why I wanted to do the interview with AMR after I heard that it was launching its new service – I wanted to give it visibility and indirectly encourage other firms to launch similar services.
BTW, have you chatted over the years with Gartner’s Jackie Fenn about the annual Emerging Technology Hype Cycle and other coverage of emerging technologies? Did you go to the 2007 Spring Symposium on Emerging Trends in San Francisco? I have done both and frankly was impressed with Gartner’s coverage of a lot of bleeding edge tech. That is why I was excited about upping the outreach of HP Labs to these analysts… along with a number of specialized analysts as well.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Gartner is for old thinking: when’s the last time you read a thought provoking research note from the Borg? Creativity has been zapped by Gene ‘beancounter’ Hall.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Hey ARonaut, Thanks for chiming in. I was wondering if ARmadgeddon had disbanded — seems as though your blog has been quite a long time.
I respect your viewpoint, although I’m not inclined to lay blame for any shortfall of thought-provoking observations at Gene Hall’s feet. It seems as though the entire industry is has been taking a deep breath before moving along. The evolutionary-not-revolutionary reaction to CES 2008 sums it up.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
[…] Barbara and I are debating the coverage of emerging technologies in the Tekrati Keeping Tabs post Gartner is not the only analyst on emerging tech […]
January 30th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Hi ARonaut, I echo Barbara’s comment about how quiet you have been lately. Welcome back.
There is interesting research happening at Gartner, but you have to look for it because it is the exception not the rule. This is due to the client base, which is mainly IT managers at Type B companies. These clients are looking for recommendations that help them with today’s or tomorrow’s issues, not big ideas.
Are you going to Spring Symposium in Las Vegas? It will be interesting to see if the analysts push the envelop there because the mix of clients will be different.
BTW, I linked to this discussion at Reading List for January 30, 2008.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Carter, This is a thoughtful response. It’s good to understand your background thinking about emerging tech coverage by the analysts and Gartner in particular. Thanks for sharing that. I’ll try to answer your questions in short form:
Yes, I do think timing — being first and early — is important. That’s why it’s called “emerging” tech.
Unlike you, I don’t believe anyone is clamoring for one-stop-analyst-shop coverage of emerging tech. Here are 3 reasons: The audience willing to pay $$ for this research is relatively small. The high risk nature of emerging tech warrants multiple expert opinions. And, it takes a true subject matter expert to have a credible opinion on the emerging stuff. Plus, A silo is not always a bad thing. You got out of HP, start getting HP out of you.
Yes, I attended the last Spring Symposium/ITxpo (and the first, and some in between). No, I’ve not chatted up Ms. Fenn at Gartner over the years. She seems to be one smart analyst. However I tend to chat with people looking for research or looking for briefing opportunities. I’m not sure where you were going with those two questions, but here’s a guess: I came away from these experiences with different conclusions than you did.
And that circles back to my original comment: Gartner does a good job of discussing technologies that are ready for early enterprise adopters. They also do a good job on emerging tech providers ready for IPO or acquisition.
January 31st, 2008 at 9:14 am
I spent many years doing emerging tech awareness in a major global. There are a lot of different meanings for “emerging tech”; the two key ones are “smart stuff just coming out of the labs” and “what we need to watch for the next generation of enterprise IT”. They’re very different.
Gartner does smart stuff at a general level. Hype cycles and the Emerging Tech Trends reports are a major part of this but Hypes are often over-interpreted as a “when to buy” guide. They are not technology forecasts; you need a different kind of source such as MIT’s Technology Review, or to watch big vendors (e.g. IBM Research, Microsoft Research, Google), newish companies (salesforce.com) and academia (MIT Sloan’s CISR for example). The trick is to identify what are the business needs the current tech portfolio can’t meet, and find stuff to do the trick, or to spot a new business opportunity facilitated by a novel tech. You have to range wide and filter.
Gartner also do “next generation enterprise” trends well and Forrester are ramping up this area with their “TechRadar”. But in this area you need to watch events (e.g. market consolidation) too and there’s often more immediacy in their blogs and podcasts which may be available without subscription. Forrester’s blogs, by the way, are hidden in their Analyst Bios page.
CSC’s Leading Edge Forum is a group that take a different approach through specific research projects and study tours. They spotted the implications of IT consumerisation very early, for example (Gartner were very sceptical for a long time but now claim they invented the term). A lot of that’s about emerging tech because things get tested and can take hold very quickly in the consumer market (think SMS text, mobile phone cameras, Facebook, tagging). LEF look for innovative approaches to IT management as much as from technologies, but it was their Study Tour that got me inside the Googleplex, LinkedIn, SixApart and many other young Silicon Valley companies. Worth a look. no they don’t pay me, but I was a client for many years.
Summary: it depends what you want; be clear about that first.
January 31st, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Tony, Interesting comments and always good to meet another analyst watcher.
I get the sense that, like Carter, you view emerging tech from an enterprise adoption or commercialization standpoint. That’s counter to my ideas about emerging tech. Emerging tech can turn out that way — but such outcomes don’t define what emerging tech is, or which of the emerging technologies might be covered in industry research.
Whereas emerging tech used to come out of big R&D labs (university or vendor) or the occasional Palo Alto garage, much of the newer stuff today is based on open source. It’s coming from IT professionals, like-minded volunteer community teams, and passionate consumers.